All The Ways The Palm Pre Could Fail
No one is going as far as to say that the upcoming Palm (NSDQ: PALM) Pre will be an iPhone killer, however, if the amount of buzz is any indication of how well a device does, the company potentially has a hit on its hand — or not. A BusinessWeek article today writes that the device will fail and Palm will struggle for not one, but a host of reasons.
The author William Hurley is far from unbiased. He led early attempts to organize and rally Palm’s developer community, which he deemed a total failure. Even still, Hurley may have a few points, which are hard to focus on given all the hype. Here’s a summary of the reasons why he thinks the Pre will be a flop and Palm will never get its fairy tale comeback story:
– The competition: He says Palm doesn’t just have to beat Apple (NSDQ: AAPL), but also RIM (NSDQ: RIMM) and Nokia.
– The price: Since the Pre costs about as much as an iPhone, wouldn’t you rather buy an iPhone rather than “an unproven phone from a company teetering on the brink of extinction, or at least irrelevance? “
– The carrier: Palm has picked troubled Sprint (NYSE: S) to be its exclusive provider for the first six months, and while Verizon (NYSE: VZ) seems to be up after that, “half a year is a long time to wait to get a smartphone when there will be so many viable options available.”
– The apps: The Pre’s store, being called an App Catalog, will initially come with a handful of offerings, such as Fandango, Pandora, CitySearch and AP News. But access to the SDK is limited, so eager developers are out of luck.
– The timing: Hurley said Palm and Sprint probably thought it was a good idea for them to release the device before Apple’s event on Monday, which will likely feature a new device and at most feature a surprise appearance by Steve Jobs. In other words, Apple has the opportunity to steal Palm’s thunder, just two days after its release date.
I'm on the Verizon network and I decided to wait 6 months until the Pre comes to Verizon. I don't see the sense in switching carriers if it's coming to my network.
You forgot the fact that there may be a "shortage". What's up with that?!?!?! Pretty sure that would be a bad move if they try and pull the "Wii shortage" gameplan.
âThe competition:
Palm doesn't have to beat anyone. The market is big enough for all of them. Did Burger King need to beat Mc Donalds?
âThe price:
Palm Pre Cheaper to Operate on Sprint. You save anywhere from $250 to $600 a year.
âThe carrier:
Sprint just won awards from JD and Gizmodo. Both Verizon and ATT will be carrying the Pre in the US in less than a year from now. Overall more companies will carry the Pre.
âThe apps:
Access to the SDK is rolling out faster than it did with the iphone.
âThe timing:
The Pre will be mentioned in more than 99% of future iphone articles,reviews, and blogs. Palm could not buy that kind of coverage.
A writer at Barron's accurately called it a "hatchet job" and scratched his head over Business Week publishing such an unbalanced piece. Hurley has a big axe to grind and is dumping on Palm in many specious ways to exact revenge with the blind assistance of the Apple-enamored press.
How slanted is the coverage in Apple's favor? Writers are saying that Apple will steal the thunder from the Pre. The New Dictionary of Cultural Literacy (Third Edition. 2002.) says "steal someoneâs thunder" means, "To upstage someone; to destroy the effect of what someone does or says by doing or saying the same thing first." How do you steal the thunder from someone you're following?!? Oh, yeah, they're Apple! They can do anything including reverse the natural order of things!
Palm is moving boldly – or suicidally – to steal Apple's thunder with the Pre launch this weekend. They need to clobber a home run and being timid and hiding under a rock isn't going to get them anywhere. By going first, they are automatically putting Apple in the response spot. Palm is throwing down the gauntlet with the knowledge that no matter what extra features the 3nd version of the iPhone hardware adds, Apple can't match everything the Pre will have.
There will be no multitasking, no hardware keyboard and no Synergy for starters. Apple already cracked and grudgingly added copy-and-paste to the v.3.0 software after two years of telling their users they didn't need it, but they will still be wide open to questions like, "The Pre does [X]; why can't the iPhone?" They can only yelp about 40,000 apps for the App Store so much before the armor chinks become more glaring.
The shoddy echo chamber "reporting" of the Pre has been a colossal shame for so-called journalists looking to hit their post quota as vendetta-drenched polemics are recycled as valid critiques (Palm shares took a hit after Hurley's diatribe; MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!) and memes from bogus "reviews" by bloggers using beta units of unknown provenance – quick, how many times have you seen the Pre is "plasticky" online in the past week? – are heralded as harbingers of doom.
Apple is scared of something and that's why so many acolytes are rushing to destroy the competition before it even takes the field.
Please let me add this sixth item to the flop list: The Distribution. Radio Shack is a mistake. Palm could have reduced the flop effect of the carrier being Sprint by focusing on Best Buy. Best Buy has the locations and database to create a buying spectacle to build demand. Best Buy has a Sprint customer to upgrade and reduce churn. And Best Buy strongly sold Palm in the heyday of handhelds. Palm's comeback could have been at Best Buy. Freeway locations of Best Buy might have stayed open until midnight for the Pre launch. The new Best Buy Mobile set its record for a phone launch last year with the Samsung Instinct on Sprint at $99. A few months later Radio Shack had weak sell-through on the Samsung Instinct at a lower $79 price. Sprint should manage Radio Shack as the channel to sell the Boost $50 Unlimited.
Radio Shack is a mistake? I guess that Walmart is a mistake, too. How DARE Palm sell their products at as many locations as possible?!?!? The fewer the better, darn it!!!
Please.
The reviews have landed last night and have overall been quite positive. Some have quibbles with one thing or another and there are areas that will need some buffing, but considering it's a 1.0 product being compared to Apple's two-years polished Jesus Phone (and all the herdthink that surrounds it), it appears to have stood up as a legitimate alternative at a far better cost. (Over two years, you'll save $1400 compared to Verizon!)
William Hurley's bitter, diaper-filling screed will be quickly forgotten now that the unbiased and no-axe-to-grind reviews are here and the general public will see for themselves in two days.
If I was choosing between the two, I would choose the iPhone over the Pre. I don't see any real advantage to the Pre, plus, Apple makes great, proven products.
Nope, Palm is a good company, with the advent of the iPhone 3Gs it just shows that Apple has hit the end game with the iPhone. Instead of a brand new game changing re-design they just re-packaged the existing product and added some features that some of the simplest phones already have. As for Sprint well that's Sprint, not the Pre. And Verizon will makes things better for sure. RIM well RIM is doing what Apple has done with desktops of late, re-releasing existing packages with either added missing features or removing features that people wanted. The Blackberry 8900 is pretty much a Bold sans the 3G. The Storm is an unfinished product, and the newer versions of the 8900 will have some 3G and no WiFi, so RIM isn't much to worry about. With the Linux-like architecture of the Pre I think Apple has something to fear, especially if Palm decides to leave the architecture open of anyone to use and take a less greedy royalty approach then Apple does with the iPhone Apps. It's game on people!