I’m in the business of identifying when there’s a change in the wind coming that will push us in a new direction. On balance, I’ve been successful. So much so, that when something I staked my career on becomes commonplace, people are so used to it that they look back and think I was only pointing out the obvious. Like when the most senior faculty member in the advertising department at Syracuse University rejected the “Interactive Advertising” course I proposed to teach in 1996 because online advertising was “just a fad.” I took a stand and got to teach the class, over his objections. Fast forward to today and online advertising is so obvious that predicting it is a thankless task.
I say this because I am about to take a stand I want you to remember. Ready? Starting Nov. 4th, Kinect for Xbox 360 will usher us into a new era Forrester has entitled the Era of Experience. This is an era in which we will revolutionize the digital home and everything that goes along with it. It starts by completely altering the way people consume home media that were only linear and nonparticipatory before now because there was no other way to engage them otherwise. But once there
This article originally appeared in Forrester Research.
“Kinect is to multitouch user interfaces what the mouse was to DOS” and “Apple TV is an iPad peripheral”. All i can say is – Whoaa. I guess i can now fully trust your analysis.
I said the same thing about seeing Kinect Technology in our homes and cars about 6 months ago. No one believed me, glad to find someone who shares the same thoughts.
Whatever….
In a few weeks, Call of Duty Black Ops that has the very old first person shooter format will break another video game sales record. I get tired of hearing geeks who get paid to write “cool what-if” scenarios who don’t get fired for being wrong..
i dont use a keyboard or mouse when i talk to or colaborate with other people in RL. kinect resembles more the natural communication and therefor it’s easier and in many cases better. altough i fear that the current release will not be as responsive and 1 to 1 as needed. for games for example, i think its possible you would need a periferall to make the interaction for some things better.
when you include the milo program (altough needs improvement i think) the xbox will become a person wich can provide you with all kinds of survices, or make at easy to acces other excisting services. it’ll be your guide/link to the entire online world.
Kinect is fantastic. I couldn’t get enough of it. But, alas, I think it wil not be as successful as it could for two reasons:
1. Space requirements. The players need to be quite far from the screen. This might work in large American homes but it doesn’t at my perfectly average UK home (or none of my friends). I imagine it will be similarly challenged in Asia where apartments are even smaller.
2. Microsoft’s closed-platform ethos. As you mentioned, this, Kinect could be a lot more than a XBox controller. But, from what I understand, Microsoft has, so far, made them sure that it be a closed platform. Microsoft has no history in opening their platforms to “hackers.”
Rodrigo, very sound points. Especially the point about Kinect in non-American homes, I will keep my eye on that one. And you’re very right about Microsoft having a closed platform. That will have to change for Kinect to work — something I say in the report is that the Xbox has to think of itself as an app platform where free and $5 apps can become commonplace rather than the $50 games currently coming out for Kinect.
Microsoft develop iOS and Android apps to work with Kinect, huh? Are you not aware of this new MS mobile operating system called Windows Phone 7? It’s releasing at the same time as Kinect and MS is spending $400 million to advertise it. I seriously doubt MS will make Android apps for Kinect. The only precedent is that they made a Bing app for Android and iOS.
Avatar Roku: My job is to tell Microsoft what’s right to do, even if it’s hard for them to swallow. Note that Google TV has developed an iPad app, which is the same spirit I’m pushing Microsoft to adopt. (It’s not unprecedented, putting Netflix on the Xbox was a brave example of going where the people are rather than expecting them to sign up for a Microsoft product.) Still, though, you’re right about the Windows Phone 7 timing. But even if it’s unlikely, it’s my responsibility to point them in the right direction.
If kinect’s motion sensor is as precise and as perfect as what we’ve seen in the demo, your prediction is at the pinnacle of reality. :)
iOS and Android apps to interact with Kinect? It’s quite a blur but there’s a possibility.
But what if Apple, Google, and Sony will invent a better Kinect-like device? Hmmmmmm…
clearly groundbreaking. i can assure you this will only show up on MS properties as MS is building the worlds biggest patent thicket around its kinect innovations.