Apple (NSDQ: AAPL) still has a pretty firm grip on the mobile zeitgeist, but we’re seeing signs that it may be getting a little weaker, courtesy of a couple of recent analyst reports…
First there is the actual number of iPhone owners. Nielsen’s latest figures on the smartphone market, from October 2010, note that Apple and RIM (NSDQ: RIMM) are currently in a “statistical dead heat”: there are as many BlackBerry devices as there are iPhones in the U.S., at just under 28 percent. Android is close behind with around 22 percent of the market, and is likely to overtake both, given the sheer number of models available on the market.
It appears that when it comes to future purchases, though, opinion on the iPhone is split. Women are more attracted to the iPhone, while men prefer the Android (RIM drops out of the picture, relatively speaking). By age groups, Apple ranked above Android in every bracket, except for 35-54 year-old users.
Perhaps most significantly: the iPhone is still the most-desired device among most current smartphone owners, but among featurephone users, Android was the most-preferred OS. This is important because there are a lot more feature phone users out there compared to smartphone users – it’s a 70/30 split right now, says Nielsen.
Another report, from Goldman Sachs and picked up by Fierce Wireless and Street Insider, gives Apple a little further bruising: Android and BlackBerry both come ahead of Apple’s devices when smartphone owners were asked what they would buy next, respectively at 27 percent, 26 percent and 14 percent.
Loyalty among current iPhone owners was also down, with 62 percent saying they would buy an iPhone again, compared to 74 percent in July 2009.
As a sidenote, a report from the analysts at StatCounter noted that in the U.S. BlackBerry devices overtook the iPhone for the first time in terms of web visits in the month of November. That’s not a statistic that has any direct bearing on Apple’s current market share, but it does point to a trend of how these devices are being used. If it was the revolutionary ease of use that catapulted the iPhone into the stratosphere in the first place, then for the same reason, if other OSs are getting used more, you can expect that to trickle into buying patterns as well.
As we’ve noted before, with smartphones currently only accounting for just under 30 percent of the market in the U.S. the market is still open for the taking. What’s clear here is that Apple’s not the sure-bet for taking it that it had been before.
Great article. It’s not too surprising that there are so many Blackberry owners out there… I remember wanting a Blackberry several years ago before Android and iPhone were really around. They have although made everyone up their game.
That market share is actually Apple pulling up to RIM but Apple does’t really care about market share losses to either as only Apple remains the full price full margin mobile phone – ever Android phone – no matter how many hundreds of millions of ads are throw at its potential audience quickly falls into the $.01 (with contract of course) while only the iphone mainatins its full price through its lifespan. The numbers you cite are out of date as about 50% of android owners want to switch to an iphone – as having tried a smartphone, they are still wanting of a professional smartphone and not just the bargin hunters OS. To be fair, 10% of iphone users want to switch to an android. As the market expands thanks to Apple – a lot of newcomers are going to wnt to taed slowly with baby steps and Android at $.01 is a nice step up from their current clamshell … then after 6 months, the majority who are not on a budget will want the full ecosystem of hardware, software, UI, apps and iTunes and switch.
It’ll be very telling when the iphone launches at verizon how many full budget buyers sudden;y switch over to the iphone – 40%, 75%? Like the ipod, Apple is happy to leave the low end smartphone marketshare to others – Apple already makes 40% of ALL the profits in the smartphone marketplace. That’s where the real money is.
How is this a bruising? Apple has been trailing RIM all along – according to this report, it has finally past Blackberry.
The problem with the Nielsen US survey is we don’t know the impact the carrier has. If you’re on Verizon and have no intention to switch carriers, and you’re asked what phone you will buy next, you can’t say iPhone because it’s not for sale on Verizon. Given that AT&T is getting saturated, it’s not surprising that among featurephone owners, iPhone would be moving downward.
Yes, this is a silly analysis. Jbelkin is on the right track. Follow the money. Who makes the most $$$ per phone? Who cares if you make $0 on a phone’s OS. Or, close to it for that matter. How much goes Google make on an Android phone? Close to…….hmmmmmm…..nothing? It’s all about the money….again! Of total phone share (smartphone and low end phones), Nokia is rocking hard, but they make very little on low end phones. Duh? This entire debate on market share for phone OS is really silly as it’s always over simplified to make for easy journalist copy. It a 2-3 horse race, it should not be newsworthy that there is #1, #2 and #3 (assuming your ignore the money issue which is also silly).
JC