Do smartphone buyers plan to vote the way they poll? A new survey from ChangeWave gauging interests of North American smartphone buyers over the next several months indicates that a growing number of people say they want an iPhone, which perhaps is not a coincidence as iPhone rumor season heats up. But based on past surveys and current market share statistics, it’s not clear that people follow through on what they tell pollsters.
ChangeWave surveyed 4,163 North American consumers who plan to buy a smartphone over the next 90 days and asked them a simple question: which operating system would they prefer? With the next iPhone expected to arrive sometime in the next 90 days, 46 percent said they were eyeing it as their next phone. Thirty-two percent said they would prefer an Android phone, while just 4 percent said they would prefer a BlackBerry, just the latest painful data point for Research in Motion (NSDQ: RIMM) in 2011.
But looking back over several quarters of ChangeWave data, it doesn’t seem that all of those who have indicated a preference for the iPhone in the past have actually stepped up and purchased Apple’s flagship product. For example, the number of people expressing an interest in the iPhone surged each summer for the past two years in the run-up to the launch of a new device, well above those expressing interest in Android. And interest in the iPhone has matched or exceeded interest in Android every quarter ChangeWave has conducted the survey. Yet Android phones have been ahead of iPhones in the U.S. market when it comes to actual sales for about a year.
It’s not like Apple’s suffering, of course, as the smartphone market is still growing fast enough to give more than one player room to expand. When it reports earnings tomorrow financial analysts expect another strong quarter of iPhone sales, and no matter what Apple (NSDQ: AAPL) has in store for the iPhone 5 later this year, it’s pretty clear that the product resonates with the public. But the disconnect between what people say they are going to do and what they actually do is interesting, as some might consider the iPhone an aspirational product only to change their minds when confronted with a two-for-one Android special or a cheaper model.
Still, iPhone buyers are the most satisfied with their purchases, according to additional research done by ChangeWave. Seventy percent of iPhone owners said they were “very satisfied” with their purchase, compared to 50 percent of Android owners and just 26 percent of BlackBerry owners. That may eventually allow Apple to take the lead in the mobile operating system market, if the initial wave of Android buyers elect to go iOS after the contracts run out on their Android phones.
Here’s ChangeWave’s data over the last several years gauging interest in smartphones among likely buyers:
And here’s a graph of what people in the U.S. have actually been buying over the three-month period ending in May, according to Comscore:
I don’t really see a disconnect here. People can aspire to an iPhone and yet get sold something else by a commission-earning sales guy. People, in America, can aspire to an iPhone but their service provider doesn’t carry it.
When Samsung skin their android phone to resemble the iPhone it’s probably a simple bait and switch for the sales guy.
LOL! Aspire to own an iPhone? Give me a break! I love my Android phone and have absolutely no desire whatsoever to switch to an iPhone.
The ChangeWave data is largely useless for analyzing demand and market share because they only survey members of their own panel, most of whom are individual investors who participate in the surveys in return for copies of the resulting research. This is in no way a representative audience of the mobile space as a whole. The data is however useful for tracking relative *changes* in demand over time.
Which part of the headline “More Buyers Say They Want iPhone, Yet More Are Buying Android” do you not understand? This is the topic in hand.
I get that you love your Android phone, but that would put you in the percentage of people that actually wanted one. The disconnect is between the people wanting an iPhone and being sold something else.
As per normal it is far easier to shoot the messenger and give a knee-jerk fan response to something and dismiss their findings without examining the data.
Last week Google announced 550,000 activations a day, whatever that means. Tomorrow we will know what the purchase rate on iOS devices currently is, not the figure they quoted last earnings which everyone is using to support their theory that Apple is losing this “battle”. I think you may be surprised just how well iOS is doing against the Android onslaught.
you mad bro?
You seem pretty jealous of iPhone users. Why so mad?
Not very surprising. There’s a missing 18% in the poll of what people plan to buy in the future. Much of that number is probably made up of people who “don’t care”, they just want a new smartphone. Given the product options saturation of Android devices, many of those people likely end up as Android owners.
haha…. mwahaha…. 550,000 activations a day to the CrApple Chumps …..er chimps buying their rebranded Samsung Galaxy S, reconfigured generic feature phones. Stop being swayed by all the shareholder mutterFUDders attempting to crank the price up. Ya…. all need to get off the CrApple drugs, RDF and FUD drooling corporate clowns financing these bullshizt surveys.
Surveys are for those that believe CrApple has a lock on Magical and Revolutionary anything. They are a reseller…. a bunch of outsourcing, factory-less pud pounding losers. Samsung alone…. out sold CrApple in smartphones for the first time and they haven’t even started selling Galaxy SII in their 3 largest markets yet. America, India, and China. Galaxy SII outpaced iphone 3GS and….. iPWN’d 4 sales over it’s launch which included 3million pre sold sales and 3 million over it’s first 40 days.
If you add in all their other Smartphones (that still beat CrApple’s cheap plasticky 3GS), Samsung is now, not only the biggest selling phone maker in America, but the BIGGEST Smartphone selling maker in the World, having just flew by Nokia as if it was standing still. They have sold well over 19 Million SMARTPHONES in this last 2nd quarter! ^_^
Read it and weep all you RDF and FUD addicted Cr4ppleholic losers!
As I said yesterday, let’s see this evening just how the Apple iOS sales are going. You are calling out Apple on 3 month old data. This evening we will have facts.
“iPWN’d 4 sales over it’s launch which included 3million pre sold sales and 3 million over it’s first 40 days.”
You are aware that in 40 days, last quarter Apple sold 11 million iPhones, yes?
“Samsung is now, not only the biggest selling phone maker in America, but the BIGGEST Smartphone selling maker in the World”
Really, would you like to provide some evidence to support this information, instead of just ranting?
You seem to be having some kind of personal crisis? What age are you, 12?
Hmmm. Just as I predicted. Google are activating 550k devices a day. Apple are doing 380k.
Let me repeat that again.
The whole of the Android Alliance are activating 550k devices a day.
Apple, one company, are activating 380k a day.
As you stated, a mere 48 hours ago, NomNomCrApplelicious, “Read it and weep all you RDF and FUD addicted Cr4ppleholic losers!”
I hope you’re good at math.