The new consensus on Wall Street about a possible Yahoo-Microsoft (NSDQ: MSFT) deal: Not so likely. In a report Tuesday, Collins Stewart analyst Sandeep Aggarwal puts the odds of a deal at 50 percent, down from 80 percent. He says that the likelihood of a deal has gone down in recent weeks—with disagreements over price and also “operational aspects/deal structure.” (Not to mention that Yahoo (NSDQ: YHOO) CEO Carol Bartz has straight out said that her company would be “cleaner and simpler without a Microsoft connection”).

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Aggarwal’s view is significant because, as Eric Savitz at Tech Trader Daily points out, he has been saying for months that a deal was imminent. Of course, while he may be lowering his odds, Aggarwal is not saying a deal is completely off the table. He notes that even with its Bing search engine relaunch, Microsoft won’t get the share needed to “remain sustainable/meaningful in search.” That largely mirrors the view of Citigroup analyst Mark Mahaney, who said in a report of his own Monday that while a deal with Microsoft was “very unlikely near-term,” Yahoo remained the only target left for a company that wanted to build up scale in the online advertising market.