Keeping in mind that forecasting is an inexact science, Geoff Ramsey, CEO, eMarketer, began his OMMA Conference keynote with a review of forecasts from the past few years - including a Forrester prediction in 1996 that Apple (NSDQ: AAPL) had no future - Internet spending is expected to hit $28.8 billion, a 32 percent growth rate, with branding growth closing in on search (26- vs. 30 percent, respectively.) As has been noted before, the key difference over the past year, has been the rise of online video and social nets. Looking at the total ad pie, Ramsey says that spending could reach $289 billion"if we’re lucky,” with internet ad spending hitting $21.7 billion. Some of the other issues Ramsey held forth on in his Advertising Week ‘07 presentation were:

Ad overlays - As a tool to finally make online video viable for advertisers, ad overlays “are fundamentally important; we can’t use measurements from years past.” Ramsey expects online video to bring in $775 million for online video.

Search - This vehicle will get richer and smarter and mobile. U.S. mobile ad spending could come in at $3.4 billion in 2010, though there is still some reluctance, due to the dismally low consumer trust level. Ramsey cited stats that show that the number of consumers who trust mobile ads are only 3 percent and 90 percent of consumers say they are not interested. Opt-in needs to be a major part of this marketing. In an aside, Ramsey expressed his dismay that TNS Media Intel (NSDQ: INTC)ligence doesn’t factor in search for its online ad spending data.

—User-Gen: “Is this a new idea?” Ramsey points back to the ‘70s with graffiti on subway trains to Egyptian hieroglyphics. The Super Bowl user-gen ad that Doritos ran was “two-thirds more effective” than the average spots during that broadcast. Quoting an exec from Crispin Porter + Bogusky: “The stuff consumers create is potentially terrifying to marketers - I would ad user potentially terrifying to an ad agency.”

Social Networking: While unable to guarantee a safe environment for marketers, if targeted correctly the concern diminishes. Ramsey expects ad spending on social nets to garner $2.1 billion, while comprising 8.5 percent of online ad spending.

—Five Industry Challenges: The first is fragmentation, where the challenge rests on achieving targeting without sacrificing reach; the clutter factor - advertisers make marketing so compelling, consumers will seek the product out; the lack of trust, need to embed brand in conversations and brand communities; “trend-itis”, such as Twitter: “just because it’s a trend, doesn’t mean you can monetize it.”