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Analysts: Liberty Isn’t Serious About Sirius

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The Sirius/Echostar drama took a new turn last night with reports that John Malone’s Liberty Media (NSDQ: LINTA) was in talks with Sirius (NSDQ: SIRI) about investing in the company and saving it from bankruptcy. But two analysts who cover Liberty have reports out today dismissing the likelihood of the two companies striking an agreement.

SEE ALSO: Reports: Liberty Media-Sirius XM In Talks

Collins Stewart analyst Tom Eagan said an investment in Sirius by Liberty was “highly doubtful,” adding that Sirius likely approached Liberty as a way of putting pressure on Echostar’s CEO Charlie Ergen during their negotiations. Barclays analyst Vijay Jayant agreed that the talks are probably a negotiating ploy, and he went further, saying Sirius CEO Mel Karmazin likely approached Echostar because he is more apt to be able to stay on as CEO if Sirius partners with Liberty instead of Echostar (NSDQ: SATS). Jayant wrote: “Ergen is a hands-on operator, and would not like to have a strongly independent CEO at a company he controls.”  Karmazin is known for being outspoken.

While agreeing that the chances of a Liberty/Sirius deal are slim, the analysts differed on the question of, if the transaction were to happen, which company under the Liberty umbrella would do the deal. There are currently three Liberty tracking stocks: Liberty Media (LMDIA), Liberty Capital (LCAPA) and Liberty Interactive (LINTA). Eagan wrote that Liberty Media would probably be the one because both Liberty Capital and Liberty Interactive have heavy debt loads. Jayant, however, argued that it would be Liberty Capital because even though that company has a lot of debt, it also has a strong cash position. He said the company had $1.7 billion in cash at the end of 2007, with an additional $530 million set aside to buy distressed debt.     

Feb 12, 2009 4:04 PM ET

Posted In: Advertising, Media & Publishing, Companies, Adobe, Liberty Media, sirius xm radio

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