eMarketer Trims ‘09 Online Ad Forecast (Again), But Calls ‘Bottom’
-
Comments (View)
- Text Size: A A
-
Email
-
Share
eMarketer is out with what should be its last online ad spend forecast for the year—and the final stats for 2009 are even gloomier than they were when it updated projections in October. The company estimates that total online ad spending in the U.S. for 2009 will end up at $22.4 billion, down 4.6 percent vs. 2008; eMarketer previously said the drop would be just 2.9 percent.
SEE ALSO: Life In Bloomberg Bubble: Grauer: We May Be At Bottom of News Industry Slump
The good news? “The economic cycle has reached bottom—at least for the online ad industry,” according to senior analyst David Hallerman. Hallerman is just the latest pundit to call bottom: IDC’s Karsten Weide predicted that the U.S. would start seeing growth in online ad spending by Q2 2010—and possibly as soon as the Q1—while UBS analyst Michael Morris forecast a return to strong revenue, and better stock performance for media companies, based on a rebound in ad spending overall.
Then there were the most recent earnings reports from Google (NSDQ: GOOG) and Yahoo (NSDQ: YHOO). Though Yahoo’s execs were less jubilant than Google’s Eric Schmidt, both companies pointed to signs of an online ad “recovery.” Still, Hallerman cautioned that “bottom” didn’t mean a return to the double-digit growth of previous years: “The blend of economic, societal and technological trends is not over, although total media spending will rise again starting in 2011.”
eMarketer says the brightest spot in terms of online ad growth will be online video, with video ads “becoming the main form of brand advertising in the digital space.” The company says spending growth for online video will run in the 34 percent to 54 percent range between 2009 and 2014—growing from $1.4 billion in 2010, to $5.2 billion in 2014. Meanwhile, search will grow at “mid-single-digit rates” in 2010 and 2011, while online classified spending “will decrease again” both years.
Posted In: Advertising, Research & Metrics, Metrics, emarketer
iTunes Movies
Social Standing
Which media brands are getting a lift from Tweeters and bloggers right now -- and which are getting panned?
Show Me: