As newspapers increasingly mull methods of building paywalls, an American Press Institute study (via Reflections of a Newsosaur) suggests there’s not much confidence that doing so will work. In a poll of publishers from 118 U.S. papers, only 51 percent think getting users to pay for content can succeed; the rest say that paywalls will not be viable businesses or aren’t exactly certain. While 68 percent of the publishers appear confident that readers who don’t want to pay for their content will have a tough time finding comparable news coverage, 52 percent also said getting the same news for free would still be “very easy” or “somewhat easy” to do so. The findings are being discussed at a conference held by the American Press Institute, which is webcasting here.

—Right now, just 10 percent of the publishers in the survey say they charge users for at least some online content.

—About 58 percent are studying the idea of putting up a paywall, though 49 percent have no clear schedule for actually going through and erecting one.

—For those who are actively planning a pay wall, 12 percent expect to do so by end of the year; 18 percent say the paywall will be up around Q1 of 2010; 10 percent will wait until the end of next June; and 2 percent might do it by next summer or later.

As for how they plan to charge for website access:

—38 percent think they will offer “teasers” for posts on a free home page. Full stories will be available only to users who buy a monthly subscription. About 28 percent anticipate having both monthly fees and micropayments for single articles.

—15 percent say there will be a mix of monthly subs, imcropayments and all-you-can-read day passes.

—General news will remain free, say 19 percent of the respondents, who will also seek to create separate premium content for subscribers.

—12 percent believe free access to articles on the site for limited amount of time. After that window closes, they’ll charge for archives.

—9 percent predict the coming of a pay-as-you-go regime, with no subscriptions or day passes—readers will have to pay on an article-by-article basis.