In Case You Didn’t Already Know: ‘2009 Is Annus Horribilis’; UBS Revises Ad Spend Downward
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The year is barely two months old and already, analysts are writing it off. UBS Equities didn’t wait long to revise its media ad spending forecast downward, as analyst Matthieu Coppet says the new estimate for online revenues in 2009 is 1.4 percent growth. The old estimate was 10.4 percent growth. As for next year, which is probably too far away to reliably call, even by the most cautious standards, could be back to double digits. UBS’ Coppet revised 2010’s figures down just a bit to 11.2 percent growth versus his previous call for 13.8 percent growth. But given the way things stand now, the only safe prediction is to expect more revisions downward throughout the year. More after the jump...
—Newspapers: Globally, UBS expects newspaper ad revs to fall 11.7 percent in ‘09. That compares to last year’s 6.7 percent drop, while expecting a further slide of 2.8 percent in 2010. The company’s prior estimates for the category were down for 2008, 2009 and 2010, respectively, 3.1 percent, 8.8 percent and 1.9 percent. For US newspapers’ ad spend, UBS now forecasts, for the same three-year period starting in ‘08 a fall of 4 percent , -19.4 percent, and –11.4 percent.
SEE ALSO: Online Ad Spend Still Had A Strong Year—In Australia, That Is
—Magazines: This category will do slightly worse than expected this year, as UBS anticipates magazines’ ad revs will fall 8 percent as opposed to the 3 percent drop UBS expected last fall. Next year, mag revs could be down .8 percent versus the .1 percent in UBS’ previous projections.
Posted In: Advertising, Research & Metrics, Research
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