In answer to all the speculation about how much AOL (NYSE: TWX) is worth as Time Warner gets closer to spinning the unit off, JP Morgan analyst Imran Khan estimates the company’s value is only $4.2 billion—a far cry from the $20 billion Google (NSDQ: GOOG) placed on it in 2005 when it paid $1 billion for a 5 percent stake in the company. JP Morgan’s estimate is also quite a bit less than value placed on AOL this summer, when Time Warner bought back that stake for $283 million, marking AOL’s worth at less than $5.66 billion.

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In a separate analyst note, Pali Research’s Rich Greenfield views AOL’s market value to be around $4 billion as well. Considering the significant amount of traffic that AOL still commands—thanks in part to those several million dial-up customers—Greenfield says that if CEO Tim Armstrong can “paint a 2010 story that AOL EBITDA can do better than a 20% decline, there could be meaningful valuation upside – not to mention, the upside if M&A speculation surfaces.”