Newser’s Michael Wolff: In 18 Months, 80 Percent Of Newspapers Will Be Gone—Give Or Take….

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Newser’s Michael Wolff: In 18 Months, 80 Percent Of Newspapers Will Be Gone—Give Or Take….

Media columnist Michael Wolff certainly knows an attention-getting quote. Appearing with Air America CEO Bennett Zier and CraigsList’s Craig Newmark in a panel discussion sponsored by Gotham Media Ventures, the head of aggregation site Newser, predicted that big media, whether it’s newspapers or conglomerates, are just months away from the dustbin of history. “About 18 months from now, 80 percent of newspapers will be gone. The Washington Post is supported by Kaplan’s testing business. The testing business will still be around in 18 months, and they will probably continue to support the newspaper. But that’ll be an exception.”

Later on, Wolff was challenged by a devoted, if vehement, NYT reader over some criticisms he didn’t make, he was pressed on whether the NYT would survive. He conceded that he was being a bit hyperbolic, but was dead serious when he said, “The NYT will not be owned by the same company 18 months from now. I stand by that.”

As many before him have done, Wolff pinned the cause of newspapers’ impending death on CraigsList, which took away newspapers’ auto, jobs and real estate ads. Newmark shook his head at that, saying that newspapers did not fulfill the public’s trust. “They failed on that weapons of mass destruction thing. And they failed on that financial collapse thing,” Newmark protested. Wolff: “CraigsList did it by taking away the ads. And they did it for good or bad, I would say for the better. They distribute ads more efficiently. But that’s what supported newspapers for 100 years. People don’t want to pay for content. And you could argue newspapers haven’t done their jobs. But that’s separate from the real story. They were supported by those three legs and they have gone to Craig’s List. 18 months from now, 80 percent of newspapers will be gone. “

The panel, which took place at the back of the Samsung Experience store in the Time Warner Center, Wolff also forecast that in another 18 months, the media and entertainment company’s home—which houses a mall filled with luxury retailers—would also fade from the scene.

David Kaplan

@davidaKaplan Apr 20, 2009 6:15 PM ET

Posted In: Advertising, E-Commerce, Classifieds Business, Media & Publishing, Newspapers

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ricsam

Majority of newspaper readers, online or off, are attracted by the quality of content. Diminishing advertising volume and fees for traditional media is a concern, but I'll bet is related to the media content quality and relevance to the general and unbound reader. I don't know if the 18 month deadline will be met for the demise of the newspaper population, but the trend is definitively in that direction. Even the survivors will be struggling to achieve a sustainable model in the offline world.

Miles Rose

Newspapers have to leave the paper part of it. They have to learn to sell their online advertising. There arent enough trees for the chinese to consume paper at the level we do. I feel all news should go to an ASCAP or BMI type model where users pay one monthly fee like the BBC antenna tax and the money gets divided up by page views or other metrix. It is after all democracy what we are talking about here. Not printing.

TJM

I pay more than $100 a year to read The Economist, online and off. If the content is good enough, people will pay. The problem with most of the content I see both in newspapers and online is that it is ill researched rubbish.

Tony Smit

He's right about the want ads revenue, the want ads in Austin Texas used to be a huge part of the newspaper. But CraigsList isn't the only cause, eBay took a lot of sales advertising away from newspapers too, and Monster.com took a lot of advertising of jobs for higher-paid positions (skilled labor and middle-management) in small companies.

The cranks everywhere claim that newspapers are too "liberal" but there are very few articles that can be classified as liberal, these loudmouths overreact to the occasional article. I do not care to read rants by these arrogant cranks. Besides, I have my own dislikes to address below:

What concerns me is the "celebrity journalism" where a great deal of attention (and paper) is given to people who are famous for being famous, and the shills who support them. This is sleaze journalism, and a whopping lot of advertising goes toward that kind of "reporting" and gossipping - a huge waste of money that can be better spent on investigative reporting.

Tony Smit

He's right about the want ads revenue, the want ads in Austin Texas used to be a huge part of the newspaper. But CraigsList isn't the only cause, eBay took a lot of sales advertising away from newspapers too, and Monster.com took a lot of advertising of jobs for higher-paid positions (skilled labor and middle-management) in small companies.

The cranks everywhere claim that newspapers are too "liberal" but there are very few articles that can be classified as liberal, these loudmouths overreact to the occasional article. I do not care to read rants by these arrogant cranks. Besides, I have my own dislikes to address below:

What concerns me is the "celebrity journalism" where a great deal of attention (and paper) is given to people who are famous for being famous, and the shills who support them. This is sleaze journalism, and a whopping lot of advertising goes toward that kind of "reporting" and gossipping - a huge waste of money that can be better spent on investigative reporting.

Jack

The newspapers are dying because with the addition of the internet people are beginning to see as I did thta the major media is so leftward slanted as to even be called communistic. This is a product of our new journalist's indoctrination by their leftist teachers from kindergarten to college. Journalists are supposed to report the news not define it for everyone. When the reporting is being censored for it's content by leftist editors and journalists and twisted to meet an agenda…well…the internet has exposed them for their true colors and now no-one can believe or trust anything they say. Our newspaper has been trying to give me a year free but I refuse to have the leftist rag in my house. Watch how quickly the Democrats move to control the internet content to "PROTECT THE CHILDREN AND THE ELDERLY"....LOL. WHAT A CROCK OFCRAP, ALL THEY WANT TO DO IS BE ABLE TO DICTATE WHO CAN SPEAK AND WHO CAN'T AS THEY HAVE DONE FOR YEARS WITH THE MAJOR MEDIA AND HOW THEY'RE TRYING TO DO NOW WITH THEIR "FAIRNESS DOCTRINE. Next they'll want it to apply to the internet also. Communist agenda's are what is killing the newspapers. The internet is just exposing that fact and telling the other side of the story. THEY HATE IT!!

Kerry Crawford

I doubt 80% of all newspapers will be gone in 18 months. They just don't move that fast. The loss of daily papers will be more gradual - production will go from happening everyday, to five days per week, then four, then three, then once a week. It will likely take years, not months.

T. Lorax

When have 80% of newspapers ever done anything in 18 months?

elenoa tufuga

The Los Angeles Times has youngsters knocking on doors and asking people at the gas stations looking for new customers. It is a liberal newspaper and I hope it will be one of those newspapers gone - out of business in 18 months from now!

sanjosemike

NO TEARS FROM ME

I will cry no tears. The Seattle Post-Intelligencer is just one example of a liberal newspaper that was out of touch with its readers.

All during the years I lived in the Seattle area, the PI and Seattle Times heavily bashed healthcare providers. It got to the point where very article about doctors was a bashing one. I got truly sick of it.

It's time for news-print media workers to get a REAL job.

Good-riddance.

sanjosemike

Ronald Trefts

The St. Louis Post Dispatch is so liberal that it won't be missed. Even on there sports page they say for more of the story go to our web site.Its so small of a paper that I need two days worth to line my bird cage.

Bruce Colwin

Well, if the major newspapers do fail, as Wolff claimed, there's not going to be much for his Newser site to aggregate. So I would imagine his business will fold shortly after. You don't really need a service like Newser to parse the remaining AP news and RSS feeds from Politico.

HK

I don't think all newspapers will be gone. Not every single person is on the internet out there. I know neighbors and others who don't own a computer. Some local papers may go away, and some big ones, but there are still those people who depend on them for information. Some papers will just have to get smart and adapt - which most of them haven't.