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Take-Two’s Stock Rises On Icahn News, But Analysts Split On Long-Term Implications

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Let the games begin. Take-Two (NSDQ: TTWO) Interactive’s shares jumped up by 12 percent today, buoyed by the news that activist investor Carl Icahn had upped his stake in the company on the belief that its stock was “undervalued.” The spike comes just two weeks after Take-Two’s share price dropped by 10 percent, when the company lowered guidance, and said it would likely post a full-year loss for 2010, too.

SEE ALSO: Is Take-Two In For The Yahoo Treatment? Icahn Takes An 11 Percent Stake | paidContent

Icahn has been an investor in Take-Two since 2007, and as Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter notes, he’s bought low and sold high twice before in the company’s history: Once in 2007, after shareholders ousted the entire board and then CEO Paul Eibeler, and then later that year, when the company said the GTA: IV launch would be delayed. Both times, he wound up making a profit—leading to speculation on the Street that Take-Two’s shares will definitely rise again—though this time, because of a potential sale.

But who would buy? Take-Two rejected EA’s advances last year, there’s no sign that Activision (NSDQ: ATVI) is interested, and those are the only other two game publishers big enough to acquire it. Disney (NYSE: DIS) has a robust games division, but Take-Two’s game line-up is the epitome of anti family-friendly ... Warner Bros. (NYSE: TWX) just bought the remnants of Midway Games, and could be wary of another big acquisition in the same space.

Nevertheless, there’s non-stop chatter about a sale. Per Pachter’s research note: “We believe that Mr. Icahn intends to force the company to consider a sale, and note that he has a history with [Strauss Zelnick, Take-Two’s CEO]. When Mr. Icahn became Blockbuster’s biggest shareholder in 2004, he sought three board seats at that company, and nominated himself and Mr. Zelnick for two of them. Both remain on the Blockbuster board, and we are confident that they know each other well. We think that Mr. Icahn’s significant stake in Take-Two will allow him access to Mr. Zelnick, and we expect to see increased interest in the stock as management responds to Mr. Icahn’s suggestions about how to unlock value.”

But Broadpoint AmTech’s Ben Schachter isn’t so sure: “There are many potential reasons why Icahn is acquiring shares now, one of which could be that he simply sees value in the name at these levels ... Beyond that, the more traditional notions of Icahn trying to force a sale, push a massive re-organization, or drive some form of financial engineering do not really make much sense in this case, as the current management team is more than open to such suggestions without having an activist push it in those directions (the current management team is basically comprised of activist shareholders). The bottom line is that we do not know Icahn’s intentions, but we can be certain that the never-boring story that is Take-Two will once again draw interminable speculation and conjecture.”

Neither analyst raised the company’s rating from “neutral,” and both expect the stock to remain in the $8-$10 range. Still, it’s clear that the latest chapter in Take-Two’s saga has begun.

Dec 18, 2009 5:03 PM ET

Take-Two Interactive logo


Posted In: Entertainment, Games, Money, carl icahn, take-two interactive

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