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The Music Business Lacks A Mass-Market Strategy

What is interesting in the current scramble for the killer online-music business model is that there is an implicit assumption that the only place people would want to go from the CD is online or mobile. The iPod heralded a new paradigm in music consumption, but it has done little to counter the impact of the CD’s terminal decline—and may even have helped accelerate it.

As things currently stand, the mass-market music consumer isn’t being catered to with any form of new product, and the fight for these consumers’ living room is being lost. It wasn’t too long ago that the home hi-fi system was the flagship piece of living-room technology, but over the past decade, living-room tech spending has shifted firmly to the TV, while the aging home hi-fi system is either gathering dust or has been replaced by a docking station. (The latter is an awkward attempt to make a personal device a household device, and besides, the majority of households don’t even have one.)

The time has come for new music products and experiences that cater to the mass market and that (for the non-tech-savvy majority) bring the home-music experience into the 21st century. In our latest report “Taking Digital Music To The Mainstream: The Music Product Features For The Living Room,” Forrester puts forward a vision of what we think is needed. 

We propose that the new mass-market music experience must be explicitly part of a new hardware experience that is contemporary but competitively priced. Our conceptual technology is a hard drive, mid-sized music hi-fi that has a detachable touch screen display and remote control. We argue that the new hardware must:

* Deliver a compelling experience even if not connected: It’s just too risky to assume that mainstream consumers will have the inclination or know-how to connect a music product to a home network, even if they have one.

* Include extensive music at point of purchase: This is, we think, the crucial element. Mainstream consumers don’t have the appetite for another format-replacement cycle, so we suggest the device should effectively replace their entire CD collection and add more, all for the cost of the device. (And yes, we know this is light years away from where current licensing values are.) And in case you didn’t notice, we just invented a new music-consumption paradigm here, and a new role for retail.

* Provide the tools for baby steps into the digital world: For those consumers who do connect, we propose a convenient range of digital discovery and acquisition applications to encourage consumers towards the digital arena.

* Leverage telcos: we want these devices to be affordable, but to really go mass market they probably need to be subsidized by a telco (e.g., a Sky Songs broadband package would include the device bundled with the router).
Of course, there are many other ways this challenge can be met, but met it must be. Unless the music industry enters the battle for the living room, it will soon lose it — and with it, the mainstream music consumer.

Mark Mulligan is a Vice President and Research Director at Forrester Research, where he serves Consumer Product Strategy professionals.

Nov 9, 2009 9:56 AM ET
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Posted In: Entertainment, Music

  • mark montgomery

    and to the last comment, those social experiences are changing and are reborn in new ways (jack white is a great example…) all you have to do is look around…

  • mark montgomery

    this thinking is flawed on several levels (i wonder if the author use to work for a record company…) the consumer has spoken and they want portability.  furthermore, most music consumers (hardcore consumers) are wired, and have adapted their home systems to the new world (can you say stereo jack out of your iphone into the home system? ever hooked up an airport express?) and are taking advantage of the new world just fine…

    what we DON'T need is another box in the home, we need less…

  • Suzanne Lainson

    I'm very sorry that the social aspect of listening to music has disappeared so much. Long ago people gathered in groups to hear live music in their communities.

    In the 20th century, people used to gather around the family radio, then around the record player, then around the TV (watching the Beatles on Ed Sullivan truly was a family event).

    Part of being a teenager was the car radio.  You and your friends could listen while driving.

    Transistor radios were more portable, but people didn't usually listen to them with headphones, so again it was a social experience.

    In all of these cases the music was imprinted with social memories.

    With so many people listening to their own playlists via headphones, the opportunities for having music be a shared experience have been greatly reduced.

  • David c Deal

    It does indeed seem the "living room" music arena is dying quickly. I do believe it is a phenomenon bigger than technology changes. People no longer perceive of music as a social activity, a "thing to do". In the 70's, 80's it was common to spend an evening with friends "listening to some music" or going to a local bar/club to "hear a band". This is not part of our social structure anymore. Other entertainments have replaced this. Other than live concerts, music is now seen as a solitary activity in ear buds with the content being free or nearly so. As a musician this makes me very sad (I just produced a "concept CD" www.davidcdeal.com which is probably as unmarketable now as hoola hoops) but I believe realistic. My musician friends constantly get excited about new equipment, computer programs all of which make higher quality recordings which never get heard on anything higher level than an mp3 player and buds.

  • D James

    I agree with a number on positions taken by the writer.  However, that doesn't not necessarily mean I think they are achievable.  The hardware companies (Sony, Matushita, et.al) long ago tried to get into the software business, it didn't work.  A little historical perspective is necessary and I apologize in advance for covering the obvious for some readers.  The old record business as we know it was somewhat of an abberition.  It was a singles driven business first.  Format changes drove it to coupling songs to make albums which sold with higher profit margins.  45's to 33's to cassettes to 8 tracks to CD's and let's not forget the mini-disk.  The CD hung around for a very long time before the next format, MP3's.  Unfortunately the consumer made a choice between quality, cost and convenience that drove the MP3 format.  The "old" music business will most likely never return.  The new music business will look more like the original singles driven business.  What's important and stated by Mr. Mulligan is that the next offering be consumer friendly and have the ability to monetize the rights of the content creators/owners in some form or fashion.  There is probably going to be a need for another technological shift in format to move the majority towards a new way to consume music.

  • Luis Pisterman

    Since vinyl was gone it seems that nobody (except the engineers, some musicians and the producers) talks about the sound quality.
    A lot of today consumers (mostly under 30) are not aware of the lack of quality on what they are listening (mp3, mp4, etc).
    Why instead of going for a low quality stream system the music industry comes with a new carrier with a superb quality ?
    The decline of CD sales are the result of bad business decision by the industry that ended up with the closing of record stores that are not longer viable.

  • Suzanne Lainson

    As you pointed out, a plug-and-go system would be great, but it could take a long time to work on licensing agreements. By the time licensing catches up to the current situation, we'll be in the middle of other technologies.

  • Mark Mulligan

    The key distinction between the concept I outline and most of those discussed above is that this technology is intended to deliver an 'out of the box' music experience that does not require any Internet connectivity.  The intention is to deliver a digital music experience for those consumers who don't use the Internet or mobile for music consumption.  Hooking up a whole home audio solution such as Sonos to your wifi network is fine for the more tech minded, and indeed the higher spenders, but not the appropriate solution for lower end, less tech savvy mass market consumers.

  • Suzanne Lainson

    "... we suggest the device should effectively replace their entire CD collection and add more, all for the cost of the device. (And yes, we know this is light years away from where current licensing values are.) "

    My guess is that by the time licensing issues would be worked out, much will have changed and the mass market will have long had experience with music and digital technology. Therefore needing to give them replacement music in an easy-to-use manner won't be a concern.

  • james Libby

    im not goin to bother with correct english here so dont bother dissing it, royalties/payments to artists/labels/publishers/whoever need to reformed…i listen to TONS of music online, and rarely need to download it, unless i want quality files to play in the car/club…or to remix….royalties need to be payed by advertisers on sites like youtube…myspace…whatever….the average consumer wont even know its happening, and it could keep everybody happy, if im listening to a track online for free, somebody is makin money..from the advertising, as i said payments need to be made to the right people in this situation, this could change things dramatically, and allow for a better music industry for everyone

  • t0n3d0g

    Hmmmm… this sounds suspiciously like the author is describing nothing more exciting than a Sonos system paired with Rhapsody's service plus some sort of offline option for the techno laggards still on AOL dial-up… a pricey and unsatisfying option for those willing to pay $1000 for hardware without speakers + a monthly subscription (for Rhapsody).

    In reality, the latest version of Spotify fulfills all the author's requirements (with the exception of leveraging telcos). Spotify Premium allows users to enjoy something like 3000 tracks when offline. The iPhone, Android and other mobile apps for Spotify finally offer a true "jukebox in the sky" experience for users.

    Rumors from those in the know suggest that in the United States, all the major labels save for one have agreed to the licensing terms. The last label to accept fails to recognize the writing on the wall: that Spotify likely represents the final chance for the music industry to monetize an entire generation of listeners who studies suggest defect from P2P/torrents/illegal downloading into using their legitimate and fully-licensed music delivery service.

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