Time Warner’s Future: All About Content (Unless It’s From Time Inc or AOL)
Jeff Bewkes has been sitting at the desk where the Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) buck stops for seven months now, and beyond the Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC) spin and the New Line trim we’re not all that much closer to his full vision of the company. It’s really quite simple, though, contends Tim Arango in a sprawling Sunday biz story —it’s all about content. Matching it with distribution no longer counts. Spin TWC, sell off AOL’s access business and possibly AOL itself, and focus on three core content areas: Warner Brothers, Turner Broadcasting and HBO. Or, as Bewkes describes it, “dominating niches with a clear brand strategy.”
M&A & NBC: He’s also looking at acquisitions in film and TV, the NYT reports, even considering bidding for NBC Universal (NYSE: GE) should GE decide to sell, “according to executives and bankers who requested anonymity because they were not authorized to disclose details of the discussions.” (Sirius (NSDQ: SIRI) CEO Mel Karmazin tells the NY Post he doesn’t think it’s a good time for GE to sell: “Would there be buyers for NBC? Sure, but I can’t tell you whether or not they’ll pay as much as what it might be worth a year or two from now. And the cash flow it is throwing off may be worth more to GE than selling it, paying the taxes and winding up with 50 percent of what it sold for.”)
AOL: Once again, the idea of a sale or a partnership with Yahoo (NSDQ: YHOO) or Microsoft (NSDQ: MSFT) is raised. It is hard not to imagine the former would be much harder since TX threw a spanner in the works when Yahoo wanted to add former AOL CEO Jon Miller to its board. Despite TW’s denial that Bewkes told Miller and Jerry Yang the company would waive Miller’s non-compete, behind the scenes people familiar with the situation continue to insist Yahoo otherwise never would have gone public with Miller on its short list. TW’s execs sound more than ready to say au revoir. Warner’s Barry Meyer: “We joke that we could have the greatest year in history, and if AOL misses its advertising target by one-tenth of a percentage point, that would be the headline.” Especially true at a time when The Dark Knight rules.
Time Inc.: Time Inc. isn’t part of this version of the vision or at least a core part and the reading of the tea leaves is even less clear than those of AOL: “According to Time Warner insiders, the company is likely to shrink the publishing unit to just a handful of the most profitable titles. Some analysts predict that Time Warner might try to sell the publishing unit en masse, but only if market conditions improve.”
So what does it all mean? Warner’s Meyer says it means distribution is becoming a commodity now, while content gets more valuable. Or is he only seeing what he wants to see in a world where devices like the iPod hold sway? Since digital represents only about 10 percent of his business, that wouldn’t be surprising but it also represents its potential for growth. Image courtesy: Humpalumpa
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