Today’s news about the fall of Lehman Brothers, Bank of America’s planned rescue of Merrill Lynch and insurer AIG’s debt problems isn’t going to have any immediate affect on online ad spending, though residual impact could eventually cause advertisers to pullback somewhat. But for the moment, online ad expenditures are expected to remain stable, since the industry has already been bracing itself for a wider economic retrenchment that started in earnest last year when the mortgage lending crisis first hit ground. For the moment, most agencies are pretty reticent about reacting, opting for the wait and see approach. Responding to a question for what the impact of all this news is likely to have on spending, WPP Group CEO Sir Martin Sorrell said via email: “Far too early to assess, but expect continuation of current trends.”

—Institutional banking not a factor online: When it comes to online advertising, which is largely about customer acquisition, Lehman and Merrill were essentially non-participants. AIG is a different story, since the troubled insurer is regarded as a fairly large online spender, and so remains an open question. Jim Spanfeller, president and CEO of Forbes.com:  “It is one of the less known conundrums of the web that while the finance category is strong from a numerical standpoint the online spending is dominated by lower funnel advertisers like Scottrade, E-Trade and Ameritrade. The real brand-oriented financial houses have been very slow to migrate spending towards the web.  Which is a bit perplexing given that their client base is now spending the lion’s share of their media time online. That all said this will not help of course. This is another hit to the economy (if not structurally then certainly perceptionally) and that will further erode marketer confidence and presumably spending. A possible silver lining is that we might now actually be close to the bottom of this cycle and over time an improving economy will help everyone.” Lots more on the issue of the poor economy and display ads after the jump...

—Poor economy already factored in: Last month, eMarketer revised its 2008 online ad spend forecast downward to $24.9 billion. That estimate was slightly lower than the one eMarketer released in March 2008, which said that US online ad dollars would hit $25.9 billion this year. For the moment, at least, eMarketer senior analyst David Hallerman doesn’t see a need for a further downgrade, as he agrees with Spanfeller that institutional banks without large retail businesses tend not to advertise online anyway. “What it implies about the overall weakness in the economy into our estimates.”

—Display ads immune?: Hallerman does think that display might suffer more with a wider downturn, as marketers reduce their budgets overall. But Paul Levine, VP, products & marketing, for ad marketplace operator Adbrite feels that display could look more attractive to marketers as their marketing spend gets more constrained and the need to retain and grow their customer base intensifies. ” The decision to advertise is a micro-economic one, not macro. Most marketers use online for customer acquisition, to encourage consumers to sign up for their service or directly respond to a message in some way. As long as there are in-market customers, you’ll continue to see advertisers. On an individual basis, yes, slowdowns in mortgage and automotive sectors in particular, wil continue to see difficulty. But one more major difference from eight years ago is that the online market is filled with much more diverse categories. Tech, cell phones, travel and e-commerce spenders are still big online, even in the face of growing pressure to pullback.”

Pic courtesy: FedeSK8

• Is BofA-Countrywide A Blow To Online Ad Market?