WGA Strike: Ad Agency React: ‘The Aftermath Begins’; Upfront Presentations Remain In Doubt
While broadcast media buyers and marketers are likely to feel relieved by the end of the work stoppage, some contend that too much damage has been done for things to return to normal. Chris Boothe, a president at Publicis Groupe’s Starcom USA, tells AdAge that “the aftermath begins” once the strike is completely wrapped up, adding that repercussions to the TV ad business will continue to be felt for some time. Some effects stemming from the way the labor action will permanently affect the way TV ad time is bought. Among the immediate expectations are:
—There will be less original programming overall, with reality TV assuming a greater share of prime-time.
—Rather than schedule most of the new season for a big fall opening, many new shows will see staggered debuts. Networks will likely begin to roll out more shows during Q4.
—Audience erosion has been a fact of life for the networks the past few years. But the strike may have sped up that trend. According to Sanford Bernstein analyst Michael Nathanson, live prime-time audiences between the ages of 18 and 49 fell 11 percent through Jan. 27, with CBS (NYSE: CBS) down 19.6 percent, while ABC dropped 15.2 percent and NBC saw a decrease 13.8 percent. Thanks to popular unscripted shows like American Idol, Fox was the only one to gain, albeit a modest 3.7 percent. Cable has grown and as more people by DVRs, live prime-time ratings might not be able to make a comeback.
—Development of new shows have been held up during the strike. Therefore, the networks might not have a reason to hold the annual bombast that is the upfront. Between the start of the negotiations in May and the end in end in early summer, marketers placed $9.2 billion in advertising for the 2007 fall season. With some networks left wondering whether they will have to produce “make-goods” - returning advertisers’ money for shows that failed to hit guaranteed ratings points - the shape of this year’s upfront is very much in doubt.
B&C: Only Fox appears committed to hosting its major upfront presentation this year. NBC continues to waver on its upfront plans. The way it looks right now, the network’s fall preview will have a decidedly more scaled back quality.
Posted In: Advertising, Media & Publishing, TV, Companies, Acacia, wga
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Comments (4)
Feb 11, 2008 12:29 PM
Odd, isn’t it? The pundits keep harping about how the viewership is down, ratings are falling off and more reality shows are about to hit the fan…...well is there any wonder why??? The crap that gets put on the tube by the so call experts is just that….crap. Most of my friends are turning off the t.v. because of the lack of good programing. All of them HATE the reality mess. And why aren’t the great gods of programing making at least a feeble attempt to get the audience over 50? There are alot more Boomers out there then pin-headed 20 and 30 year olds whose life revolves around “Brit”, “Hilty” and someone who has died. And by the way maybe the writers should pick up a book once in a while to get a fresh idea instead of re-making old films.
Feb 11, 2008 2:05 PM
@ Veronica -
Miss your “Murder, She Wrote” and “Golden Girls” reruns, huh? Smart shows like The Office, House and Pushing Daisies too complex for your AARP mind?
Feb 11, 2008 4:45 PM
The audience - particularly the 18-49 crowd - has shifted to online video. The shift was already happened, the strike just accelerated it a bit. From comScore: # of video streams was greater than # of searches for Dec 2007 - I wrote about it here:
http://mefeedia.com/blog
Feb 11, 2008 5:29 PM
While a small percentage of the younger audiences are watching online video, it’s not enough to call it a major audience shift by any means. Television still, by far, receives the highest level of participation than any other form of media. The younger viewers have always been drawn to non-traditional forms of media, and have been consistently difficult to measure using the antiquated diary system used to measure television viewership. My bet is that there are a lot more watching than are being measured, as will remain the case until Nielson catches up.
As far as programming goes. The programmers buy, and the station airs, what people watch. Want to know that fastest way to get a bad program off the air? Simple: don’t watch it. A program that no one is watching gets no ratings, and will find itself short-lived. If people are watching it, then the ratings will reflect such and the program will stay on the air.
I’m annoyed by people who complain and complain about the poor quality of television. It’s because people like to watch crap that there’s crap on the air.