Needham analyst Mark May is out with a research note on Yahoo today, and says that the portal made a mistake not paying up to buy Facebook. The report says “It appears that since then Facebook has far exceeded the assumptions Yahoo supposedly used to value Facebook.” That reports were around and upwards of $1 billion, when the rumors started circulating last year.
Also, it has some upbeat number on Facebook’s growth: “Based on press reports and on our industry contacts, we believe Facebook recently surpassed 21 million registered users (with a 90%+ monthly active rate) and is generating 1.5 billion total pageviews per month. That would imply 2,329 average monthly pageviews per active user – more than double Yahoo!’s reported assumption of 1,061. In addition to higher user engagement (or stickiness) at Facebook, the site also appears on track to exceed Yahoo!’s user forecast as well. With Facebook supposedly adding 120,000 new registered daily, the site is on pace to far exceed Yahoo’s assumption of 22 million registered users by year-end 2007.”
And this: “We believe Yahoo!’s corporate moral could use a major shot in the arm. Acquiring a dynamic, fast growing, cutting-edge property like Facebook and/or a handful of the other more international properties could go a long way to reinvigorating both the Yahoo! brand and its employees – in our opinion.”
Let’s see…it might be too pricey now.