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Palm’s Struggles Will Handicap Its Ability To Ward Off Upcoming Competition

Palm’s poor performance was no surprise today since it sent out a warning last month that sales were falling way short of expectations.

But it’s not the company’s weak performance in Q3 that people should worry about. Cash-strapped Palm (NSDQ: PALM) will be busy conducting a turnaround over the next few months as its competitors rush into the market with guns blazing. Already, Palm’s launch on Verizon Wireless took a back-seat to the Motorola (NYSE: MOT) Droid as Verizon’s big device launch of the year. Closer to the end of the year, Palm will have to contend with Microsoft (NSDQ: MSFT) as it prepares to launch its flashy new operating system.

Release. | Webcast.

The problem:

As the company warned last month, sales of the Palm Pre Plus and Palm Pixi Plus at Verizon Wireless did not meet expectations. The company blamed most of the problems on not sufficiently training Verizon Wireless retail employees on the product, so that they could recommend it to customers visiting the store. In the past, Verizon has focused strongly on pushing BlackBerry devices and then became occupied for the Motorola Droid launch. But Palm’s CEO Jon Rubinstein said with the help of Verizon, their employees are currently going from store-to-store to get employees up to date, and that there’s anecdotal evidence that it is working. Palm won’t launch with AT&T (NYSE: T) until later this year.

Unsold inventory:

The big concern in the short-term is the company’s mounds of unsold phones. The company said it shipped 960,000 smartphone during the quarter, which was above analyst’s expectations, however, the company’s sell-through for the quarter remained a dismal 408,000 units, falling 29 percent compared the the previous quarter. With unsold inventory being a problem, the company will have to wait until carriers order more phones. In Q4, revenues could be as low as $150 million, more than less than what it made in Q3. Falling sales in Q4 will mean the company will burn cash, something it doesn’t have a lot of—especially when compared to Microsoft or Google’s handset partners, like Motorola, Samsung or HTC.

Cash Reserves:

The company would not estimate how much cash it will burn in the upcoming quarter, but during the company’s conference call today, an analyst guessed out loud that it could be as much as $200 million. The company said at the end of Q3 it had $592 million in cash and equivalents. Palm said it doesn’t not have any plans to raise additional money because it has enough until the business breaks even.

Lowering spending:

In response to the outlook, Palm said it is revising spending and plans to focus on sales and marketing and field training efforts and that Q4 operating expenses will be lower than Q3. One of the areas is advertising, where it will launch a new 30-second TV campaign during the first two weeks of March Madness, but after that, Rubinstein said they’ll shift to cheaper online advertising in social networks. Cutting expenses is likely the most important thing Palm can do at this time, but with deep-pocket competitors like Apple (NSDQ: AAPL), Google (NSDQ: GOOG) and Microsoft, in the market it will be hard to remain top of mind for consumers.

Q3 Results:

In the third quarter, Palm reported a net loss of $18.5 million, or 13 cents a share, on revenue of $349.9 million—exceeding its own revised forecasts. Last month, it warned that revenues could be as low as $285 to $310 million. However, that’s below analysts’ expectations of $424.7 million (before the warning was issued).

Mar 18, 2010 7:17 PM ET

Palm Pre Photo: Palm

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Posted In: Mobile, Money, Earnings, Companies, Palm, Verizon

  • Schoschie

    I see why this site is called paidcontent.org. It's content paid for by Microsoft (NSDQ: MSFT).

  • rawbobb

    1) windows 7 IS Vista Service pack 3.  Everyone in the IT industry knows this.

    2) Microsoft insists on not following Web standards for their browsers.  People are flocking to Firefox, as they will for Chrome.

    3) Chrome will compete with Ubuntu? Who cares.  Chrome may lower the price of a Netbook 15%.  The economy's bad, 15% is real and measurable.

    4) Who's going to buy MS office at $450 when the netbook costs $450? Google apps may very well be "free" on their OS.  A whole generation under 30 isn't worried about their data on the internet.  That generation will just get larger.  They Do, however, know the difference between $450 and Free.

    5) Track record?  For every failure of Google there is 50 from microsoft.  Please. 

    It's Goliath vs. Goliath, as long as they both have tons of cash to burn. 

    The difference between MS and Google is that Google (in perception at least) embraces "open" while MS embraces themselves.

    I'm happy that this article was short.  If you guys need a better crap storm topic let me know.  Thank you.

  • <a >JLO

    As Google moves further away from its core area of seach, they risk build an aversion to their products and some paranoid users…

  • ed dunn

    I have to admit, this is an interesting move. It's like Google just walked by and pushed the Ubuntu and other Linux OS developers off the road into the mud - the same people who would have been a great partner…

    Trying to split the Linux developers and open source communities will only help Microsoft. No one in business is going to touch it if they see linux and google developers/loyalists scrapping it out at SlashDot and ZDNET….

  • Joseph Tartakoff

    Hi Wade,

    Thanks so much for writing those up. Those are fair counter-points. I look forward to seeing what happens.

    Joe Tartakoff, paidContent.org

  • Wade

    There are a quite a few assumptions and problems with this article, and the only real point that has any merit is the first about Windows 7 being a better contender in the marketplace than Vista was.  I have outlined my arguments here: http://wadetandy.com/2009/07/five-reasons-microsoft-should-still-fear-google/

  • It is an interesting move, but something that has been rumoured for so long it was just a matter of time.  But the move to further split the linux market and slow the possible growth of Ubuntu is a shame. 

    As Google moves further away from its core area of seach, they risk build an aversion to their products and some paranoid users…

    If Google OS knows what time you boot up your PC, how long it takes for you to open up Chrome, when you Googled a product, which you found what you were looking for in the results shown as an Adword.  You now visit the online store running Google Analytics to pay via Google Checkout… how much is this going to rise some anti-trust issues…

    Oh forgot that the confirmation of online purchase was send to your Google voice number which you later read on your Google Android phone number…

    http://thelostagency.wordpress.com

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