On Thursday, DirecTV reported its first net subscriber loss for a quarter, with a net 52,000 U.S. customers bolting the satellite service during the period extending from April 1 to June 30.

Also read: Pay TV model won’t die anytime soon, analyst says

In fact, each of the top four multi-channel video providers — which collectively service more than 60 percent of U.S. pay TV homes — lost customers in the second quarter. Earlier on Thursday, No. 4 service, Time Warner Cable announced a net loss of 169,000 subscribers. That came just a day after No. 1 service, Comcast, reported a net loss of 176,000 cable customers.

Last week, in a pre-Q2-earnings filing with the Securities Exchange Commission, satellite carrier Dish Network, the No. 3 service, revealed a net second-quarter loss of 10,000 users. Collective total for the Big Four: minus 407,000 users.

Many of these lost subscribers continue to migrate to telco-based services, with AT&T U-Verse  and Verizon FiOS  adding 202,000 and 120,000 video subscribers, respectively, during Q2.

Also read: Pay TV growth keeps slowing: 484k users added in Q1

Coupled with satellite additions, the emergence of these two telco video services have more than offset the declines of the cable business and kept the overall pay TV business in growth mode the last few years. But at least for now, satellite has stopped growing.

Also read: For Comcast, broadband subscribers are up, but video subs are down

As for DirecTV, the loss of 52,000 net U.S. subscribers wasn’t a complete surprise, with analysts predicting a loss in the mid-30,000 range due to the company’s efforts to reduce “churn” and keep subscribers around for the long haul, instead of enticing them for short stays with short-term promotions.

DirecTV reported a 9 percent increase in quarterly revenue to $7.22 billion. It’s operating income before depreciation and amortization (OIBDA) — i.e. profit – also increased 9 percent to 2.01 billion. While the satellite company faces stagnant growth domestically, it continues to show ample promise in Latin America, where it added another 645,000 net subscribers.

Also read: DirecTV aims to double Latin American revenue to $10B in five years

And while Latin American expansion continues to be the key to DirecTV’s future, cable companies like Time Warner are banking on the growth of broadband users. The addition of 72,000 net ISP customers pushed Time Warner’s revenue up 9.3 percent to $5.4 billion in Q2. OIBDA increased 10.3 percent to $2 billion.

With the Pac-12 collegiate athletic conference set to launch a national cable TV network, along with six regional channels, on Aug. 15, satellite services DirecTV and Dish Network — the Nos. 2 and 3 pay TV operators in the U.S. — have yet to sign a deal to carry the new programmer.

Also read: Call it an upset? How DirecTV held its ground vs. Viacom

Telco-based distributors Verizon FiOS and AT&T U-Verse also remain unsignd.

A representative for DirecTV, which just resolved a significant program licensing dispute with Viacom on Friday, said talks with Pac-12 Network officials are ongoing, but no announcement is expected until “closer to the school year.”

Also read: Why Breaking Bad didn’t scare Dish but Walking Dead will

Televising every Pac-12 college football and basketball game not already picked up under the conference’s licensing deals with Disney/ESPN and Fox’s regional sports operations, the Pac-12 Network has agreements in place to launch on Comcast, Time Warner Cable, Cox and Brighthouse, covering about 40 million U.S. homes.

Also read: Why aren’t more people cutting the cord? Regional sports networks

While they lack leverage in most program licensing negotiations, passing on sports is typically noteven an option for major pay TV carriers.

For example, come this fall in the Los Angeles region, if certain big USC and UCLA football games remain blacked out on DirecTV and Dish, these services could see subscribers aggressively switch over to Time Warner Cable, the only major carrier with a Pac-12 Network deal in that region.

But carriers like DirecTV and Dish are more intent than ever these days about holding the line on ever-increasing program licensing costs, and they don’t seem to be in any hurry to make deal.

The Pac-12 Network is going to launch with a flagship national channel, as well as six satellite channels serving six regions: Los Angeles, the Bay Area, Arizona, Oregon, Washington and Utah/Colorado.

Last month, DirecTV CEO Michael White told reporters that he had no interest in carrying all seven channels.

Certainly, White has other costs down the road to consider. Not only is the long-term popularity of the Pac-12 network unknown, but Time Warner Cable is about to launch its own regional sports  channels, cemented around a multi-billion deal with the Los Angeles Lakers.

As for the Pac-12, the model remains the Big 10 Network, which launched in August 2007 on only DirecTV and U-Verse, before its popularity pulled most other major pay TV carriers onboard.

The model to avoid? The Mountain West Conference’s channel, which never broke out beyond its DirecTV cariage and was ultimately scuttled.

It also marks the first time in recent memory that a major pay TV licensing dispute ended on the distributor’s terms.

Also read: Viacom and DirecTV end spat with new deal

According to several analyst reports, the core of the agreement calls for DirecTV to pay Viacom around $2.80 per each of its nearly 20 million subscribers to carry the programmers channels (up from somewhere between $2.08-$2.25, depending on the estimate).

According to Sanford Bernstein Research senior analysts Todd Juenger and Craig Moffett, who predicted this standoff in June, that’s right on target with DirecTV’s initial offer, and way below the nearly $3.68 cents per subscriber Viacom had been seeking.

The Bernstein analysts also note that DirecTV wasn’t forced to carry the lightly viewed premium channel Epix. And it also received a wide swath of TV Everywhere licensing wherewithal, enabling it to offer Viacom channels to its sub scribers on their digital devices.

Also read: DirecTV/Viacom battle will come down to digital rights

As we reported this morning, Viacom is now receiving an average of just over $600 million annually over seven years from DirecTV, a 20 percent yearly bump over the previous contract. Viacom had demanded a 30 percent increase.

“The Viacom/DirecTV dispute may be remembered as a critical turning point in programmer/distributor negotiations,” Juenger and Moffett wrote in a Friday morning reporter to media company investors. “For the first time in memory, it was the distributor that won the public relations war.”

(It should be noted that several analyst consider this a win for Viacom, too, given that the company did achieve fee increases in the face of ratings declines.)

So how did DirecTV win? The analysts believe big recent ratings declines on Viacom channels like Nickelodeon were a factor; so was the ubiquity of Viacom programming on over-the-top channels like Netflix.

Another possible factor: viewing is lighter in the summer months, and Viacom’s in-demand shows, like MTV reality series The Jersey Shore, are not in season.

“In fact, we believe DirecTV chose this specific battle for those reasons,” the Bernstein report states. “Traditionally, customers blame the company to whom they send the monthly check. Not this time. Judging by the blogs and consumer press, blame was shared much more evenly this time.”

It certainly has to be considered an upset, given the recent propensity of such impasses to go in favor of the programmer.

A document released Friday by the Federal Communications Commission, the group’s 14th “Video Competition Report,” illustrates what so-called “multichannel video program distributors” like DirecTV are up against.

Put simply, the infusion of so much consumer choice in the pay TV market means cable, satellite and telco TV companies can’t afford the competitive disadvantage of losing a major set of channels.

The rise of satellite services like DirecTV and Dish, as well as telco-based servies AT&T U-Verse and Verizon FiOS, has transformed a pay TV market that used to feature many regions serviced by only one cable provider.

In fee disputes with programming suppliers, cable companies used to have a lot more leverage, given their subscribers’ lack of options. But no more.

In 2006, the FCC found that only 6 million homes representing about 4.7 percent of the pay TV market had access to at least four pay TV services. By 2010, that number had ballooned to 42.9 million representing 32.8 percent of the market.

Meanwhile, there doesn’t appear to be any brotherhood among pay TV operators, with Comcast among competitors looking to exploit DirecTV’s Viacom impasse in ads and poach is subscribers

Based on comments from the two, DirecTV was paying about $500 million a year on Viacom when the seven-year-old contract ended at midnight July 12; DirecTV said it is spending $10 billion on programming and Viacom said it was delivering 20 percent of the viewed programming but only getting 5 percent of the money.

Nomura analyst Michael Nathanson estimated in a client note that Viacom is shifting from $2.25 per subscriber to more than $2.80. My understanding is there is a so-called “step-up” increase in the first year with points along the way when the fee would escalate. A source familiar with the situation said the first-year percentage increase is double the offer before Viacom said it would pull the channels and DirecTV dropped them.

Was the blackout worth it? It was for Viacom, which took a PR hit but is getting a significant double-digit increase in fees and is locked in with one of its largest carriers for a long-term deal that I’m told is comparable in length to the one that just ended.

All the channels in the previous agreement are to be restored immediately, ending the 10-day blackout that affected roughly 20 million DirecTV subscribers. Many of the channels are on basic packages and included with every subscription.

The deal comes less than a day after Viacom rejected DirecTV’s claims to customers than a deal was imminent. But that was also the day that DirecTV’s offer changed to one that was more attractive to Viacom.

Here’s the press release from Viacom:

Viacom today announced that the company has reached a long-term agreement to renew carriage with DIRECTV.

All 26 Viacom networks, including Nickelodeon, Comedy Central, MTV, BET, CMT, Logo, Spike, TV Land, MTV2, VH1, VH1 Classic, Palladia, Nick Jr., Nicktoons, TeenNick, Tr3s and Centric, will return to DIRECTV’s channel lineup immediately. As part of the overall carriage agreement, DIRECTV has an option to add the EPIX service to its entertainment offerings.

Viacom is extremely pleased to bring its programming back to DIRECTV subscribers, and thanks everyone affected by the disruption for their patience and understanding during this challenging period.

And this is how DirecTV told its subscribers:

RT this: Viacom channels are back on DIRECTV in L-T deal. Thanks to our customers. #DIRECTVHasMyBack

— DIRECTV (@DIRECTV) July 20, 2012

But DirecTV went a little further in its press release, with Derek Chang, EVP of Content Strategy and Development, describing the blackout as “bullying”:

“It’s unfortunate that Viacom took the channels away from customers to try to gain leverage, but in the end, it’s clear our customers recognized that tactic for what it was.”

And trying a call to arms for all TV providers to resist blackouts as a bargaining tool:

“The attention surrounding this unnecessary and ill-advised blackout by Viacom has accomplished one key thing: it serves notice to all media companies that bullying TV providers and their customers with blackouts won’t get them a better deal. It’s high time programmers ended these anti-consumer blackouts once and for all and prove our industry is about enabling people to connect to their favorite programs rather than denying them access.”

DirecTV’s statement also played up the vocal support it had from some competitirs, including the American Cable Association, Cox Communications, Time Warner Cable, and Mediacom.

Bringing a retort from Viacom:

Despite the unnecessary drama, we’re very pleased with our agreement and we’re extremely thankful to have reconnected with our DIRECTV viewers.

Make no mistake, blackouts are a high-pressure tactic. So is threatening to drop channels or actually dropping them if a deal doesn’t match the pay TV provider’s goals.
We said it on day and it’s worth repeating: the subscribers are the ones hurt the most. Unfortunately, all too often negotiations that should be manageable without drama on either side wind up escalating in ways that hurt everyone.

Influential media technology analyst Richard Greenfield tweeted Thursday afternoon that DirecTV  ”appears to have caved” in its fee-negotiation standoff with Viacom, and that the satellite carrier’s customer service reps are telling subscribers a deal is “imminent.” That would, of course, put the conglomerate’s channels back onto the set-tops of DirecTV’s nearly 20 million U.S. subscribers.

Responded a Viacom spokesman: “That’s news to us.” Viacom has already accused DirecTV of “spinning” the negotiations to look like they’re closer to fruition than they actually are in order to hold off a subscriber exodus.

DirecTV has to yet to respond to paidContent’s inquiries seeking confirmation.

Viacom channels were pulled off the service a week ago after the two sides weren’t able to reach renewal terms.

Would DirecTV customer service reps really lie? Will I really be able to watch The Daily Show tonight?

More to come on this matter as it develops:

Here’s Greenfield’s tweet:

.@DirecTV appears to have caved and is signing deal with @Viacom – CSRs telling subs deal is imminent – Welcome back Dora and Daily Show

— Rich Greenfield (@richgreenfield1) July 19, 2012

But according to DirecTV, the sticking point in its ongoing carriage impasse with Viacom is … wait for it … the fledgling pay channel Epix.

On Wednesday — just more than a week after Viacom channels were pulled off the set-tops of DirecTV’s nearly 20 million subscribers — both sides ramped up the rhetoric.

Also read: Why doesn’t pay channel Epix switch to an over-the-top model?

Viacom hit first in a late-afternoon statement, dismissing any notion that a deal is close at hand and accusing DirecTV of “moving backwards” in negotiations.

Elaborating for paidContent, a Viacom spokesman called this notion “DirecTV spin,” adding, it’s “a fabrication designed to deceive their customers and discourage them from moving to other distributors.”

Also read: Analysts – DirecTV/Viacom battle will come down to digital rights

Responded DirecTV: “Viacom’s current statement on our negotiations is completely inaccurate. They made a proposal last night for our carriage of the 17 channels they pulled from DirecTV, and we accepted all material terms for those channels including an increase that was more than fair. We are ready to close this deal at anytime and restore those channels to our customers.

“However, as part of that offer, Viacom insists that we carry the Epix channel at an additional cost of more than half a billion dollars. We know our customers don’t want to pay such an extreme price for an extra channel, they simply want the ones they had returned to them.”

Also read: DirecTV – “Viacom is forcing this bundle on you, not us”

And on and on it went, with Viacom’s PR team later “updating” the company blog saying, essentially, that it also offered DirecTV proposals that didn’t include Epix, and the satellite carrier passed on those, too.

“Nothing in the [DirecTV] press release reflects the reality of the negotiations, which, sadly, are at an impasse,” the Viacom missive added.

Currently, Epix touts about 30 million subscribers, but it only counts carriage on four of the top 10 pay TV services — Dish Network, Verizon FiOS, Charter Communications and Cox Communications. It also has a licensing deal with Netflix.

The premium channel is a joint venture between Viacom, Lionsgate and Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer. And getting carriage on the No. 2 pay TV service in the U.S. would certainly be a vital next step in its evolution.

Logic, of course, says this impasse can’t exist for much longer: DirecTV provides Viacom with about 20 percent of its U.S. coverage, and Viacom channels deliver DirecTV about 20 percent of its viewing.

In a note to investors Monday, Bernstein Research senior analysts Todd Juenger and Craig Moffett wrote that the haggling will inevitably end. But that it might go on for a while, with no “Linsanity” moment on the horizon.

(For those of you who missed out in February, an entrenched Time Warner Cable caved into the demands of regional sports network MSG after dissonant fans of a moribund New York Knicks pro basketball team suddenly became energized by the emergence of point guard Jeremy Lin, father of the so-called “Linsanity” media phenomenon. Astoundingly but perhaps not surprisingly, MSG/Knicks/Cablevision impressario James Dolan on Wednesday allowed Lin to sign with another team, the Houston Rockets, choosing not to match a contract offer.)

Back on subject, we see one very definitive signpost up ahead for DirecTV — its August 2nd second-quarter earnings report. Should the El Segundo, Calif.-based carrier report significant subscriber losses and no dealmaking progress to investors, we DirecTV subscribers might have access to Epix very soon.

Those predictions come courtesy of Bernstein Research senior analysts Todd Juenger and Craig Moffett, who on Monday published a report outlining how they see this rather landmark carriage impasse unfolding.

Also read: DirecTV CEO – “Viacom is forcing this bundle on you, not us”

For now, these analysts believe, the rift is wide. And they’ve published some of the best speculative data on the subject yet to illustrate the point.

There are few publicly confirmed data points in this rift, but Juenger and Moffett speculate that under the just expired carriage deal, DirecTV paid about $500 million in affiliate fees to Viacom, or around $2.08 per its 20 million subscribers — a good deal, considering Viacom averages around $2.50 per subscriber for the rest of its affiliate deals.

They believe Viacom is asking for a one-time fee increase of 30 percent in the first year of a new five-year arrangement, plus annual increases of 8 percent over the remaining four years. This would result in a compound annual growth rate of 12 percent and increase its per-DirecTV-subscriber carriage rate by $1.60 to $3.68. The total revenue increases adds up to around $1 billion.

Also read: Fighting DirecTV, Viacom takes down its shows for everyone

DirecTV’s bid, they believe, is for a first-year bump-up of around 12 percent and annual “inflators” of around 4 percent, bringing the per-subscriber nut to around $2.83.

As is typical in carriage disputes, Moffett and Juenger write, the two sides will inevitably settle, on terms closer to Viacom’s than DirecTV’s, with the satellite programmer in the tougher position of having to replace unique programming like Comedy Central’s Daily Show With Jon Stewart.

“This dispute is more than run of the mill for a variety of reasons, however. And may go on a long time,” they add.

For one, the analysts note, there is no natural programming catalyst, like the sudden emergence last winter of soon-to-be former New York Knicks star Jeremy Lin, who almost single-handedly pushed an entrenched carriage dispute between regional sports network MSG and Time Warner Cable in the programmer’s favor, resulting in a deal.

In fact, evidenced by DirecTV’s carriage acquisition last week of Disney Jr., which caters to the same kids 2-5 demographic that Viacom’s Nickelodeon does, the satellite carrier seems to be digging in.

“DirecTV has singled out Viacom as the target for the inevitable battle over affiliate fees that one of the big [multi-channel video program distributors] had to take on at some point.”

However, with Viacom’s 26 channels supplying around 20 percent of DirecTV’s viewing,  it will have to make a deal at some point.

Moffett and Juenger believe that, by Viacom curtailing some of the programming it offers to over-the-top channels — or even crafting exclusive digital deals with DirecTV — a solution could be achieved. DirecTV could save face and claim victory, even though it had to capitulate on fee increases, by saying it’s getting more value out of its investment.

In fact, the key to the deal could rest in Viacom’s decision last week to pull its its in-season programming off streaming channels.

“Perhaps Viacom’s decision to pull its content off the web, while initially a negotiating tactic, will be a catalyst to motivate Viacom to keep that content off permanently,” they wrote. “Surely they don’t want to continually pull it up/down every time they are negotiating a distribution agreement. And surely DirecTV would not be satisfied to have signed an agreement, paying a significant increase for the right to distribute Viacom’s content, only to have Viacom return to making much of that same content freely available to anyone with a high-speed Internet connection (whether they subscribe to a pay-tv service or not).”

With DirecTV’s 20 million U.S. subscribers blacked out from Viacom’s 26 channels since Wednesday morning, the satellite carrier has been repeatedly running a one-minute, 23-second commercial spot in which White pleads his company’s position in this ongoing carriage dispute.

White gets out all of the expected agenda points: it was Viacom’s decision to pull the channels; the media conglomerate wants to increase rates by 30 percent; sit tight and don’t call Dish Network because, “rest assured, this will be resolved.”

Also read: Fighting DirecTV, Viacom takes down its shows for everyone

Along the way, however, White seems to undermine the entire pay TV multi-channel bundling model.

“At the very least, we think Viacom should be willing to give your family the choice to pay for only those channels you watch,” he says.

Of course, our guess here is that White’s really taking a shot at Viacom for leveraging the strength of channels like Nickelodeon, MTV and Comedy Central to force DirecTV to also pick up lesser viewed networks like Palladia, Logo and Tr3s … or maybe he really does envision a new paradigm of unbundled, a la carte cable TV programming. (An email to DirecTV press reps seeking clarification hasn’t been returned yet.)

Here’s the video:

Viacom’s cable channels are set to be pulled off of DirecTV, effective at midnight, with the media conglomerate unable to secure acceptable carriage-fee increases from the satellite TV service.

The move would black out Nickelodeon, the No. 1-rated cable network for 66 straight quarters through the end of 2011, from DirecTV’s nearly 20 million subscribers. MTV, VH1, Comedy Central, Spike TV, TV Land and BET would also be among the 26 channels taken down.

It’s unclear who is threatening to drop who, with both Viacom and DirecTV releasing statements Monday describing the other as the aggressor. Still, that negotiations with such a powerful programmer like Viacom would reach this impasse is indicator of where the pay TV business stands.

Also read: Netflix CFO – “Really, we didn’t kill Spongebob’s ratings

“In any conversation about ‘undroppable’ cable networks, Nickelodeon has always been near the top of the list, perhaps second only to ESPN,” wrote Bernstein Research analysts Todd Juenger and Dave Beckel, in a report last month that forecast this carriage dispute.

“Undroppable” might be stretching it a bit, with other pay TV operators, including Dish Network and Time Warner Cable, also going to the wire with Viacom in carriage negotiations in recent years.

Also read: Viacom and Time Warner Cable play chicken; programmer to pull networks over fee dispute

Still, Nickelodeon’s recent steep ratings declines, which have been tied, to various degrees, to wide-scale accessibility of the network’s shows on digital platforms like Netflix, have certainly changed its negotiating position.

The fact that Nick faces more competition in terms of reaching young audiences also factors into the equation, with new channels like Disney XD and The Hub popping up in recent years. Also factoring in: the renewed spirit among multi-channel operators to fight spiraling programming cost increases.

Also read: AMC – “Dish never even talked rates with us”

For its part, DirecTV claims that Viacom is seeking 30 percent rate increases that would pass on an additional $1 billion in subscriber costs over the life of the contract. (That’s probably way too high — Bernstein Research indicated that Viacom has been getting fee increases in the “low single digits” during most of its recent carriage renewals.)

Viacom counters that its channels generate 20 percent of DirecTV’s viewership but only account for 5 percent of its programming costs.

While other factors — the ebbing of powerful MTV ratings driver The Jersey Shore, for example — may be degrading Viacom’s negotiating position, at least one analyst believes DirecTV is making a “serious mistake” by pulling Viacom’s channels (or allowing them to be pulled).

Blogged BTIG Research’s Richard Greenfield Tuesday:

“While the demographics of Viacom’s cable network viewers may be the most exposed to finding IP-based alternatives, the viewership of online programming is still dwarfed by the size and scale of Viacom’s content.”

DirecTV Chairman Michael White, at an investor’s conference in New York on Friday, doubted that a new Apple TV OS would be so good that current cable or satellite subscribers would shell out for another set-top box, and he believes they’d still keep whatever current box they already have, according to Variety.

He was also skeptical about content providers getting on board:

“They are going to launch something, maybe in the next two weeks…but I don’t see media companies saying ‘You can stream things in bundles over the Internet,’” White said at Sanford C. Bernstein’s Strategic Decisions confab. “Typically with technology, it smashes the cost structure in some new way (but) with content costs, rights fees and the cost of spectrum it’s hard to see (it) obsoleting our technology.”

While skepticism is called for when it comes to whether content providers would get on board with an Apple television, White could probably afford to be a little less certain about the appeal of Apple TV in its current form. While it isn’t currently in danger of becoming a product as important as the iPad or iPhone, the company has sold 2.7 million Apple TVs in the first half of its fiscal year 2012, after selling 2.8 million all of last year, Cook said earlier this week. At least some of those customers bought one in addition to their cable or satellite box, or replaced their pay TV set top box entirely.

But at least White understands that Apple, with its technology, is clearly intending to disrupt his industry — Time Warner Cable CEO Glen Britt infamously didn’t even know what AirPlay is.

For his part, Comcast Chairman Brian Roberts was far less defensive in his remarks at the same conference. He practically welcomed Apple to the TV business, but he’s secure in knowing that to use Apple TV customers need Internet access, which he will happily keep selling them.