LinkedIn: Yes, We Had M&A Talks
Not that this is a surprise, but LinkedIn founder Reid Hoffman has finally admitted it has been having talks with the “usual suspects” for a buyout, but then decided not to. “I know we are going to be much more valuable in a year or two…We have had (buyout) conversations with all the usual suspects, but I think an IPO is by far and away the most likely outcome”, Hoffman told AP. The story says an IPO is likely in a year or two. The company is still projecting $75 million to $100 million of revenues in 2008…about 18 million people now have profiles on the site, roughly twice as many as a year ago, the company says.
There's very little chance that these guys go public. This is standard bs/spin. One more thing that's a little baffling is the wide variance in revenue estimates — which is it, $75M or $100M?
They very well could go public. as for the variance in revenue it is estimated to be between $75 and $100 because they are not a public company. So they don't have to say how much they are worth. The estimate is probably based on subscriptions to the service, and advertising revenue.
I wouldn't be surprised if LinkedIn's value increases over the next 1-2 years. They seem to be doing really well. I have been a LinkedIn subscriber since 2006 – and I would say that what they are doing is really creating value for subscribers like me.
As an anecdotal evidence: I actually am getting more and more "new" invitations from people who just signed up to LinkedIn – and these are people who I earlier invited a year ago. So it must be catching up.
About the ad revenues? Probably going to increase. LinkedIn's positioning as a "professional, privacy-orientated networking site that is beneficial to its users" makes it a good medium for media planners and people who get "social marketing". However, once they start veering away from this, I think they'd be in trouble – deep trouble.
Their value lies in their 'unique', strong proposition. Once they lose that – and only they can could lose that – they'd be in deep trouble with advertising. I would rather hear them talk about business models that go beyond "advertising". Because frankly, I don't think advertising is going to be sustainable too.