Earnings: GOOG CEO: “We are very much in the search business”
For a second during Google’s 3Q earnings call I had an image of Chairman and CEO Dr. Eric Schmidt swinging a gold watch in front of my eyes while he intoned: “We’re a search company.” In fact, he closed the opening remarks with the comment that “we are very much in the search business.” But then he went on to talk about the ways that Google is also in the portal biz, swapping that “p” word for another — personalization. Google started as a company that sent users way; it’s future is staked in no small part on keeping people tethered by services like Gmail and Google Apps. In fact, one of Google’s goals is to keep increasing the percentage of revenue that comes from traffic to its own sites and through its own services.
Personalization: “The interesting thing is that this approach to having your information personalized is a benefit not only for the user who can continue to refine and target information, which is what we are working on, to people in a very personalized way; but also for businesses who want to know they are spending their money in an effective and targeted way.”
Partnerships: But Google also stresses its need for partners — Google-AOL, Google-MySpace, etc. Schmidt: “We see impressive growth in the area of partnering with existing and new companies from content technology and advertising perspectives; we’ve laid the groundwork for many more coming.” Speaking of partnerships, Schmidt declined to answr outright a question about whether several major music companies had taken a stake in Google or YouTube. Schmidt: “With respect to the content deals and the ones we did most recently, speaking for Google, we were able to do some very interesting deals using a combination of financial prepayments, revenue shares, other ways in which the money flows. We saw that in our partnerships the best partnerships come when both partners have a share in the revenue success of the deal and that is typically the deal structure we have been doing. I’d rather not go into the specifics of those deals.”
Panoply: Or plethora, if you prefer … either could work for the constantly growing array of products Google offers. Co-founder Sergey Brin spent part of the call explaining his efforts to streamline the way products are offered, to integrate more of them as features instead of standalones: “What we are concerned about is that if we continue to develop so many new individual products that are all their assorted silos, you will have to essentially search for our products before you can even use them. And then you will have to search before you can do a search, in many cases.” One effort in the works will standardize the way documents, photos and videos are shared. Simple, more consistent are becoming watchwords.
Video Ads: Omid Kordestani, SVP-global salesand business development, said the company is seeing “great success” with its video ads. Jonathan Rosenberg, SVP-prodict management, said video ads have been implemented by hundreds of advertisers in over 30 countries.
YouTube: Kordestani: “We think ultimately the answer lies with the fact that there is a lot of usage here, a lot of interest from our users, and that we believe that there is also a great monetization engine that Google can provide here to make this all work for all the parties.”
Copyright: Asked “how heavily are you relying on maybe a liberal interpretation of the DMCA,” Schmidt replied: “We are definitely not relying on a liberal or a conservative interpretation of the DMCA. We are relying on the DMCA as it is being imposed by law and there are not a lot of shades of gray in how it works.”
Hard to believe but this is only a small amount. Google gluttons can find more in the transcript from SeekingAlpha.com.
Lets keep all media hype away and quick short covering amusement following it and check out Google's development in recent Q in order to try to understand its valuation compare to its piers. Upside now is known and everybody is on Buy side with price target 600 (+30%). Shorts are killed and short ratio is less than one day trade, no easy money for upside after yestoday short covering left, somebody has to start to buy into this story at this 460 level. First Google came with Rev 2.69 billion which is less then 2.76 which I have projected from PWC predictions of 16-18 billion online ads market in 2006 with Google Share of 40.5% of this market in Q3 (seasonal trend applied) So, first Google did not manage to increase its market share in Q3. Second, lets look at earnings GAAP ($) Q1 1.95, Q2 2.33 (+19%), Q3 2.36 (+1.3%!?) Earnings growth dramatically slowed. Third, revenues: Q1 2.25, Q2 2.46 (+9.3%), Q3 2.69 (+9.3%!?) math's precision or can I smell some cooking oil here? 44% of revenue is coming from international business. All hitfarms are located in pure "international "destinations India, China, Malaysia, Russia etc. Revenue growth is slowing with increased risk of cutting back on advertisement due to economy slowdown and click fraud awareness buy the customers. Fourth, Net cash from operations Q1 0.825 (37% of Rev), Q2 0.841 (+2% 34% of Rev), Q3 1.0 (+19% 37% of Rev) Capex Q2 0.699 (0.319 Real eastate 0.380 "normalised"), Q3 0.492 (+29%!) So Google Capex increase is really much bigger then their Rev growth 29% vs 9.3% with constant Net cash from operations at 37% Rev, Free Cash Flow is under compression. Total Free Cash Flow for nine months is 1.112. If we will project Rev growth for Google at 12% for Q4 vs 9.3% for Q3 they will make Rev Q4 3.0 (less then based on PWC and 41% of market 3.2) Net cash from operations at 37% of Rev 3.0 will be 1.1, if we apply 20% growth for NCFO in Q4 (vs +19% Q3) we will get 1.2 so lets assume NCFO will be in the middle = 1.15. What about Capex? I think it will be increasing dramatically with moving into video: broadband, storage, new blades, electricity. But if we even aply same growth to capex as to Rev +12% (they said it will be bigger then Rev growth, Q3 was +29%) Capex Q4 will be 0.551. So, Free Cash Flow in Q4 will be NCFO-CAPEX=0.6 and total FCF 2006 will be 1.712 If stock will not move from 460 we have MC=142 billion MC/FCF=83! YHOO is projecting FCF 1.35 in 2006 (lowered recently) with MC at 32 their ratio is MC/FCF=24 If the Google will manage to make even 2.8 EPS in Q4 (+19%) (do not forget annual charge for all those "to be expenced option related expences which they did not account in past Qs) GAAP 2006 will be 9.44. So with GOOG at 460 we have company with 2006 est MC/FCF=83, P/E=48.7, P/S=14.2 with slowing growth in EPS and Revenue and most important with dramatic compression in FCF. YouTube will bring dilution, much more CAPEX in Video Game and No revenue so far. What is the more reasonable valuation of Google: if we give GOOG MC/FCF=40 (69% over YHOO for leadership and "strength") MC with 1.712 FCF must be 68.5 billion with 310 million shares outstanding before YouTube diluton it is…221 share price. When MR Market will figure it out I do not know, but I am testing the water with March 2007 460 puts.
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